Jihadists In Western Europe Highly Likely To Continue YouTube Use Over The Next 12-24 Months


Executive Summary:

With broadband being easily accessible throughout Western Europe, it is highly likely that jihadists in Western Europe will continue to use YouTube over the next 12-24 months.

Discussion:

EU27+ Broadband Penetration (Home) By Country 2006 & 2007 Source: Websiteoptimization
According to Point Topic, Western Europe had a 27.36% share of the global broadband market as of the third quarter 2007 (Q3 2007). According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)The Western European countries which have broadband access are France, Sweden, Italy, Finland, Portugal, Norway, Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, Iceland, Ireland, and Turkey. According to Websiteoptimization, other European countries with broadband access are Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania . Additionally, according to Websiteoptimization, "Monaco had the world's third largest household broadband penetration rate at 82.92% as of Q3 2007 and Western Europe's overall broadband growth rate in the Second Quarter 2007 (Q2 2007) was 5.28%".

While users can view YouTube videos using dial-up connection, YouTube suggests users use a broadband connection of 500+ Kilobytes per second (Kbps). According to Internet World Stats, broadband typically refers to high-speed Internet transmissions with speeds of at least 256 Kbps. Although users may, in some instances, view videos on YouTube using dial-up internet connections, the download speeds are extremely slow and technical difficulties downloading the videos are common. According to OECD, those Western European countries having the highest advertised broadband download speeds among countries worldwide, in order of highest to lowest speeds, are France, Sweden, Italy, Finland, Portugal, Norway, Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, Iceland, Ireland, and Turkey. All of these countries have sufficient broadband download speed capabilities to use YouTube.

According to the United States Department of State (DOS), many jihadist groups are active in Western Europe. According to Mark Silverberg of the International Analyst Nextwork, "European madrasses (Islamic schools), online extremist literature, satellite TV, and powerful jihadist rhetoric are all growing in influence in Western Europe". According to the DOS, "foiled terrorist plots and concerns over the increasing radicalization among immigrant youth in Europe has caused anxiety over potential jihadist threats". According to the DOS there are many other jihadist groups active in Western Europe. Many users of YouTube are posting videos and listing European countries as the origin on their user profiles. This trend is likely to continue as more and more Western European users gain broadband access.

Additional Comments:

None.

Source Reliability: 7

Analytic Confidence: 7

Julie E. Schleich